Sunday 29 December 2013

Science Fiction Is About The Characters!

I read this article about a week ago at Locus about how writers make up excuses for science fiction being inaccessible.  You know - I agree with Kameron Hurley.  I'm  writing a story with different props and setting and that it is it.  Yes, there are stylistic and differences in approach to writing the story for a genre, but it should be just like generic storytelling for any audience. Any more, and it is now an intellectual puzzle or exercise for specialists.  You should be able easily describe the core theme of the story relating to the characters without the tech to pass this test.

http://www.locusmag.com/Perspectives/2013/12/kameron-hurley-making-excuses-for-sciencefiction/

Kuratas - a real Japanese mecha.

At its core, any science fiction story should be about characters and how futuristic technology affects their lives or society in general.  You have to explain the tech to show the effect on people, but that is all.  It is about the characters be they alien, human, or robot AI.  I actually came to this same conclusion based on other readings, in particular manga, as the most recent example.  Manga - or Japanese comics - is successful in all story genres because of the characters.  There are action, mystery, sci fi, high school, disaster, etc., manga, but they all have strong storytelling based on rich characterizations.  Yes, manga follows formulas, but so do other types of fiction, and it is better than many western comics because of the character focus of the stories.  One of my favourite manga is Bakuman, which is about a pair of aspiring mangaka (manga writer and artist), and what they do to become famous.  While I'm not going to wait to kiss the girl like one of the Bakuman protagonists, I would also like my Exocrisis Blue to be made into an anime.  It is a pipedream, but one that I can hopefully strive to achieve, by having a good story with strong characters.  While my writing involves mecha and advanced military technologies, it is about the student pilots who must pass their training and fight for all humanity in the end.

I write mecha military SF for now, but I'm definitely going to think about how I can push the envelope with advances in AI, robotics, drones, and humans in the command loop. You need human characters to tell the story, but if military tech keeps improving, how do you tell a rich story without humans at the pointy tip of the spear?  There is going to be no need for combat pilots, regular infantry or starship crews as robots / electronics can do our job faster and they don't leave grieving families.  What kind of story revolves around that?  I'm thinking about it and hope that military SF pushes these boundaries even more.  No more crews dying in space in their cruisers, or men having limbs blown off by mines.  Soldiers will still be there, but in what role?

Happy new year for 2014 everyone!

Sunday 15 December 2013

About the Blue Newts

The aliens are named the Sh’thimori or the People of the Water.  Before this name was known, the humans knew them as the Blue Newts from the dead bodies they recovered.

They are six limbed amphibious beings that walk on four of them and use the first two limbs as arms with three fingers on each hand. Their heads appear like flat-headed newts with large golden eyes with a mouth full of short sharp teeth.  They prefer to eat their food raw.  There is a vestigial tail.  Their skin is slick and wet that is normally light blue-grey in colour but it can change colour to show their emotional state.  It is blue hued when relaxed, more orange when agitated.  Communication occurs via low clicks and clucks and the odd use of limited range telepathy by certain individuals with the telepathy gene.  They see well in low light, but bright light hurts.  On Earth they wear goggles in bright sunlight.

Their home world terrain is a hot, very humid water world with many archipelagos of thousands of islands.  It circles a red giant star.  They prefer hot, moist climates and prefer to live in marshy, coastal, or swampy areas.

They are a matriarchal society and live in nest communities that can achieve the size of mega cities.  Leaders can be either male or female.  Nests have many relationships to other nests and nests often specialize in a task or duty.  Most of the young do what their families have always done.

They give birth to live young – newtlings.  There are usually pairs of infants born to a mother and the children are communally raised.  Maturity is long, similar to a human, but some abstract reasoning doesn’t fully develop until they hit puberty in their teens.  Sexual activity is governed by cycles and there are pair bonds that develop.  The children tend to get into a great deal of mischief when they are young and need to be constantly watched / guarded.

The newts have a caste system that organizes the various nests.  All nests are equal in value / rights, but governing decisions are decided by nests that perform important governing functions.  There is a great congress that decides on a ruling council.  The Sh’thimori do not have raw ambition as a psychological attributes so they naturally put the collective race before their own. They do have feelings of achievement and pride which pushes them forward to advance and promote themselves or their collective.  The working toward the greater good can be seen as cold or calculating by humans.  They do live in harmony with nature as they evolved and lived at the waters edge.  Things like pollution and disturbances in nature affect them quickly.

Some nests are specialized for extremes such as warrior, thinker, mediator, and explorer.  They may have minor genetic engineering modifications to enhance their abilities such as intelligence, endurance, speed, strength, and tougher skins.  These specialized castes are treated with reverence and are not allowed to interbreed with other nests of a different designation.  They are guardians of the pure race – the natural body.  All nests work side by side on a mission, and the caste differentiation only applies for the command structure.

It is known that the aliens came from a dying world, are vaguely humanoid amphibians, are blue in color and don’t understand us well at all.  Not very much is known about their culture, but it is known they are not part of a hive mind.  Their biotech is very advanced and hundreds of years ahead of ours.  They don’t really want to exterminate us, but don’t trust us, and needed to weaken us.  Their home world was dying, it was from an old red sun.  Too hot.  World was roasting.  The Newts were not the first civilization to originate on their world.  They had a forerunner species that was Newtlike but went extinct or left the world.  Newts will not use nukes first as they know the world is fragile.

Great Mother Egg, or Shre’lor

Newts have a belief in the Mother Egg or Mother Sea.  The egg was lost during the destruction of the Newt mothership at the end of the Alien War and was recovered ten years later from the Kahamba research facility by a CAJUN special forces raid.  The artifact now resides at the AO research facility in Edmonton, Canada.

The Shre'lor is an egg shaped crystalline object about ninety centimeters tall and weighs almost a hundred kilos.  It is quite dense. It is translucent, with a smooth surface.  It glows with a faint amber light and also seems to generate a faint amount of magnetism and heat.  It the Newts holiest religious artifact. Faint crystalline lattices can be seen inside the object, as if they were holographically etched.  Could be a computing or information storage device, a power source, or something else altogether.



Thursday 12 December 2013

What Is My Audience for Mecha or Military SF?

I was just thinking the other day about what my audience size is as I write "realistic" military SF with a mechas in it.  While I don't have any real numbers, I went through it as a thought exercise.  The goal was to figure out how to write my Cover Blurb for Neo Ace.  My first step was to determine the approximate size of the science fiction and anime audiences.

I used the number of registered users on Reddit for the rough statistics.  You can see that SF fans outnumber anime fans, but only by 22%  (anime is big as a genre).  There is a mecha forum, but it doesn't have many members compared to the anime forum, but I figured the numbers were low as anime companies in North America wouldn't sell to 1% of the market for mecha anime so I guessed the number was closer to 5% of the number of anime fans.  For military SF, there is no forum - weird, but not surprising as I can't find a marketing channel for this audience either.  I guessed that military SF fans were about 10% of the SF fan base as Amazon classifies about 10% of the SF books as military SF.  Publishers must be making money, so they'll publish what can sell.

Military SF / Mecha SF / Anime / SF Audience Overlap (click to enlarge)
Having come up with these numbers, I did a real quick Venn diagram with the overlap with the various fan bases.  Military SF and Mecha Fans belong to their appropriate larger bubble. There is a big problem determining the overlap where the sets of fans meet, but based on my past experience, here's what I figure.

Anime and SF fans crossover, and it is larger than what the diagram shows.  However, I'd be surprised if fans that read SF and watch anime overlap by more than 50%.  I think it is probably way lower, like 20 or 25%.  The number does go up if you include other non-written - say visual media (TV, movies).  I'm a writer though, so I'll go with the lower number.

Then, out of these two big audiences, you want the mecha fans and the military SF fans.  This is a sizable number of fans even at 10% of the overall fan base, and it would be wonderful to get both.  Military SF fans are mainly written media fans as there just isn't that much visual military SF.  Mecha fans by definition are visual fans as it is mecha anime. The crossover here is unknown, but I believe it is low again just because of the parent set numbers. 

So, based on all this, what do I do for marketing my Exocrisis Blue books?  I think the intersection of mecha fans and military SF fans is small.  I also tried to market my ebooks in the mecha forum on Reddit and I didn't get too many bites.  There were some fine folks who liked it and downloaded the book, but the numbers were tiny compared to the 1000 members in the forum.  I like both SF and anime so I cross over, but many people are more specialized.

Neo Ace is a military SF novel, but it has 30 ton combat robots operated by human pilots.  It is written to be realistic, especially when used with combined arms operations with regular military units.  Note that I used combat robot instead of mecha; this is the type of word phrasing I was debating on using.  Mecha is for anime fans, not military SF fans in general.  Mechs also implies western robots versus eastern mecha.  After looking at this, I'm going to be changing my marketing so it is aimed at military SF, the larger audience of readers (probably 5 times larger).  I think I went down the wrong road in my earlier efforts.   I still found readers, but not as many as I would like.

Anyhow, thanks for listening to my ramblings.


More Scifi Topics

Tuesday 10 December 2013

After The Alien War



The Aftermath of the Alien War
The fighting was heavy in both Africa and South America and the countries there were severely devastated by both the aliens and foreign troop interventions.  The surviving countries are now strongly independent and wary of the other Human Alliance member nations.  Some tactical nuclear weapons were even used on their soil, but no foreign aid was received for the devastation that was done.  While the remaining Human Alliance nations had enough troubles on their own, their unwillingness to help other countries in need convinced these countries the outside world was not their friend.  Some limited shipments of medical supplies and food were sent from Canada and Japan to Brazil during their crisis, resulting in the formal trade ties that exist today. However, Brazil only has limited trade and diplomatic ties to other Human Alliance members such as the European Union and True America. Africa is a complete basket case that is xenophobic to outsiders with constant skirmishes against the Newt colonies there.

Japan held out well in the war after being invaded and utilized captured alien technology to build mechas with active molecular armour and rail guns.  It is rumoured that some South American nations like Brazil have special deals with the aliens.

During the war and the ensuing chaos, half of the human race or 4 billion people perished. Vast stretches of the world are now run by warlords and / or are no man’s lands.  Many nations were shattered and no longer exist.  The United States and Russia were dealt  major hammer blows and are shadows of their former selves.  The USA has fragmented into east and west, with some states pretty much obliterated.  Northern China is split by the powerful Tianjin and Xian factions, with the powerful remnants of the People’s Republic of China is based out of southern China, with the new capital in Guangzhou.  Hong Kong / Shenzen Special Economic Zone is the powerhouse of the PRC now.  The European Union is still powerful, but badly devastated by the war.   Central America is controlled by the Newts from southern Mexico down to Columbia and then into central Brazil.  The Brazilians emerged semi-victorious from the war and control much of South America directly or indirectly.

Canada was blasted, with a meteor impact devastating Toronto, but the western cities survived more or less intact.  Vancouver and Seattle were devastated by an earthquake four years later and rebuilt. Canada is now basically Western Canada with Ontario gutted by the destruction of Toronto.  Quebec is now Free Quebec (or Quebec Libre), a more autonomous province with its own military, but still part of Canada.  The Atlantic Provinces are now part of the US East or the True United States of America.  Alaska is Alaska.  Canada is allied with Pacifica or US West.  Trade goes north from Churchill Manitoba through the ice free NW Passage.

Ten years after AA  (After Armageddon or After Arrival).
  • European Union is now lead by France as the Germany was greatly devastated by the war.  A great deal of rebuilding has happened.
  • Brazil – or the Brazilian Empire.  It rules South America except for neutral Chile. Brazil has a Guyana Space Base that was captured from the European Union and works with them for space launches.
  • The former eastern United States of America – also calls itself the True United States. A very conservative Christian religious democracy originally started in the power vacuum at the end of the Alien War.
  • The former western United States is now Pacifica and represents the ideals closest to the nation from which it originated.  A former president from Chicago started this nation in a revolt from the tyranny of True America.
  • Japan is once again an economic powerhouse with close ties to Canada and Pacifica.  Japan has had brush fire wars with the PRC even though it has simmered down.  They support the northern Chinese factions.
  • China has fractured into a southern block which is now the Peoples Republic of China, and multiple northern factions.
  • The Pan-African Alliance is lead out of South Africa.  This block is allied with the PRC which provided aid to the African continent.
  • Australia is independent along with New Zealand.
  • The Russian Federation stretches from Europe to the Pacific.  It is a strong power block that heavily influences its neighbours.
  • India and Pakistan have set aside differences to be their own power bloc with ties to the Middle East, Russian Federation, and PRC / Northern Chinese.
  • The middle east, the -stan countries, Iran, Iraq all have ties to the Russian Federation. 
A good chunk of Earth’s tropical and subtropical lands had been occupied by the Newts, who had either pushed the humans out or now lived in a tenuous coexistence with them.

Almost seventeen years later
It is a relative period of prosperity for the recovering nations.  Much of the world is still devastated, but the countries that were least scarred absorbed huge numbers of skilled refugees and began reconstruction.  People are optimistic, but there is a societal trauma that lingers.  Many Americans are now Canadians.  There are also many Japanese living in Canada as the countries have major trade and exchange relationships.  Australia is the major southern trading partner for Japan and the PRC.


More Exocrisis Blue universe articles.

Sunday 8 December 2013

The Alien War



The Alien War lasted a year and a half.  Amazing brutality was practiced by both sides, with no quarter given.  No aliens have ever been captured alive.  The war began with alien landers dropping off their spider bio-mechs that left a trail of destruction behind them.  Using their powerful beam weapons, they ravaged the countryside around them in a scorched earth type campaign.  They did not attempt to occupy ground, but just destroyed human population centres and infrastructure.  Manufacturing facilities, bridges, military bases, power stations, refineries and more were targeted.  Their role was to knock out the human race as an organized force.  Mankind dropped its differences and formed the Human Alliance under the leadership of the United States.

A single bio-mech could take on a regular army battalion and only the heaviest gun weapons could hurt it.  The bio-mechs have a type of energy enhanced armour, called active molecular armour, that can regenerate the surface and make it denser.  Each bio-mech has a supporting set of mini-bugs – drones that fly and crawlers for close support / small space work. Nuclear weapons were used in a limited fashion against them, but it was major overkill.  The alien energy weapons made attacking aircraft obsolete as they could be easily shot down. Massed fire with supporting artillery could take down the bio-mechs, but the mechas are fast and move out of the kill zone quickly.

At the beginning of the Alien War the aliens started out with a vastly superior hand.  It was a desperate war of attrition for humanity as vast amounts of equipment and soldiers were expended to just blunt the alien advances. The tide began to turn in the eighth month  with the development of tank mountable coil guns that could defeat the alien armour and the mass combat deployment of HARM units in the tenth month to use them.  Within the next six months the aliens were driven back to their enclaves and the war was at a stalemate.  Initial onslaughts and gains by the Blue Newts were mostly taken back or being fought over still. 

The Newts had taken their primary territories in the subtropical and tropical areas of the world which suited them.  At one point, they pretty much owned both Africa and South America, but lost territory in the second half of the war.  They ruled New Guinea, a swath of Africa from the central Congo to the Indian Ocean, Central America, and a large portion of the Amazon Basin.  In many of the areas around their territory there was lawlessness due to governmental collapse.  The pirates of the Caribbean became a reality again. Warlords and other pirates flourished in the aftermath.

NEWT FACTS
The colony fleet had one large mother ship or master vessel with 12 other smaller colony vessels.  This master vessel stayed clear of the action out at one of the L4 points and only sent planetary shuttles down.

The Blue Newts sent in their smaller colony ships which had atmospheric entry capability.  Three landed in Brazil, three landed in Africa, two in Borneo, two in Guatemala, and two in New Guinea.  These ships became colony hubs and were used as administration centers and also as a source of raw materials for colony expansion.

This was never a combat fleet.  It was a colony fleet.  Nukes were launched by the Human Alliance against these foothold colonies, but they were easily destroyed by the Newt orbital defences and their landing shuttles.  Missiles were easy to kill in the boost phase and were still good targets in space. 

It is suspected the Newts may have some deep space ships left, but none have been seen since the Alien War.  One wonders if there is another invasion wave coming from their home world.

In the closing weeks of the Alien War, the Human Alliance, hatched a desperate scheme to destroy the alien mothership.  The Americans, Russians, and Chinese seized orbital space back from the aliens with a combination of space attack drones and massive ground based laser cannon.  They then launched a fleet of nuclear armed drone shuttles after mothership.

The attack worked as a number of the drone shuttles were actually powerful, single use, x-ray laser weapons.  They utilized nuclear bomb pumped x-ray lasers to cripple the defenses of the mothership and allow the remaining nuclear armed drones to finish it off.  It was the Human Alliance’s last unified response as the aliens used fusion bombs on Beijing, Washington D.C., and Moscow.  It was a very clear and calculated response to the nuclear armed powers that was accompanied by the first communicated message of the war.  "Destroy our most valuable asset and we destroy yours.  We are here to stay on our terms.This was the only use of nuclear weapons by the aliens and the world has been in a cold war state since.  The destruction of the capital cities killed the President of the United States and the Chinese Premier along with much of the central government.  Both nations were already stressed to the breaking point and were plunged into chaos and civil war.  The Russian Federation survived in a much better state as the President had been in a different location.

The crippling of the alien mothership provided just enough warning for the a massive evacuation of the vessel.  Shuttles and escape sections scattered from the mothership until the drones hit with their nuclear payloads.  The escape sections of the ship were lifeboats.  Sections and pieces of  debris came crashing to Earth all over the equatorial band from the mid-Atlantic all the way to the middle of the Indian Ocean.  Orbital space became a no mans land with neither side in total control.

More Exocrisis Blue universe articles.


Saturday 7 December 2013

The Blue Newt Arrival (The Invasion)

Astronomers had spotted the incoming meteor swarm late and governments had to prepare for the worst with barely a month of warning.  These meteors were not global extinction causing events, but they were large enough and fast enough to obliterate cities on impact.  A single meteor strike would have been bad, but there were hundreds of them.  Several were much larger too, capable of causing sizable tsunamis in both the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans where they were projected to strike.
The space faring nations of the 21st century only had limited space-based weapons capability to target a just over a third of the swarm with nuclear weapons.  The largest rocks and the ones striking on home territory were given priority.  The United Nations was in an uproar over this self-serving behavior, but the nations with the means protected their own first.  Still, a few weapons were diverted from meteors that would strike in Siberia or North Dakota to save major cities like Karachi and Sydney.
The northern hemisphere was hit the hardest, particularly North America and Asia.  This was the Armageddon Event.

The meteors would strike over a 12 hour period, impacting over most of the planet as it rotated.  Ninety percent of the intercepted rocks were destroyed, including the largest ones.  The world breathed a sign of relief that was cut off as the remaining meteors struck home.  The devastation had been intense around the globe with fires raging out of control everywhere.  Casualties were still in the millions despite the evacuations.  The Earth was covered in a thin smoky haze during the day and burned a fiery red at night.
Hundreds of cities spanning the globe had been destroyed or damaged.  In the United States, Grand Forks, Wichita and Knoxville had been hit, but an interception malfunction had allowed San Diego to be destroyed by a nearby impact.  Tragically, Toronto in Canada, had also been devastated when another interception had only partially succeeded.   In Europe, Sheffield was a smoking crater along with Dusseldorf and Krakow.  Nairobi was gone and so was Hyderabad.  In China, the destruction of Shanghai had stunned the country due to another failed interception. 

As the dust cleared, the aliens landed.  They had stayed hidden behind the asteroids in their stealthy ships.  Their attack was a complete surprise. They had used the asteroids to disrupt humanity without resorting to nuclear weapons.  When we were weak and unprepared, they attacked.

More Exocrisis Blue universe articles.


Explosive Mecha Showdown At Cold Lake

Neo Ace Status
The chapter 30 draft is now up at Wattpad.  The final showdown between Geraldo, Jake, and Mayumi happens.  You can have a look at the draft of Neo Ace over at Wattpad here for free.  There are more chapters to go, but I'm going to stop posting at chapter 30.  When the KDP Select goes live to promote the final ebook, I'm going to have to take it down while it is in KDP Select anyhow.  So enjoy while it is up there for now.


I'm now finished revisions and am pretty sure that Neo Ace will be out after Christmas.  It'll be a miracle otherwise due to the high workloads for various people.  It is actually funny that my novel is supposed to end a few days before Christmas too.  It just worked out that way as it was based on events that happened in the first semester for the mecha pilot cadets.  I think I managed to pull of a great blend of characters both old and young that gave the story depth and wasn't like "students save the world - something that anime seems to do."  If there was any mecha anime influence it would have been closer to Evangelion with the older folks calling the shots, but with the cadets playing important roles.  In the next novel's story arc, the cadets do play a much larger role, but again, the more experienced pilots and leadership will propel the story along.










Wednesday 4 December 2013

Get Me a Mecha! Plus The Ebook Publishing Business Model

Neo Ace Status
The chapter 29 draft is up on Wattpad, and a mecha pilot needs a mech!  In this chapter, Penny Tanaka, one of the veteran instructors at the academy frantically looks for a mecha to use against the raiders.  You can have a look at the draft of Neo Ace over at Wattpad here for free.

I have done my second pass through up to chapter 30, and have 3 chapters to go.  Then I have to format it for the Kindle - table of contents, cover, the front matter for the book, and the book blurb.  My copy editor will then have a look at it.  Christmas publication is possible, but I'm betting only 50/50 right now.  Late December or early January looks like 100% though.  The holiday season is tough.  I'm going to try to get some blog posts up about the world building in Exocrisis Blue next, and have to crank out a few new posts for my Tokyo Excess blog on Japanese pop culture too.

Ebook publishing on your own is like diving in the deep end.
Ebook Publishing Business Model
I've been reading news and blog posts about this subject for a few years now.  I'm a business analyst and have been pretty excited about this transformative stage in book publishing.  The subject really has been written to death by now, but I'm going to kill it deader than dead (from Groo I think).  Do you actually kill zombies who are technically dead or do you bring them back to life to kill them as the opposite of dead or do you destroy them?  Anyhow, I'm going to look at this trend from a pros and cons perspective with a touch of innovative business disruption thrown in.

Base Assumptions About Indie Ebook Publishing.
This is a big topic and I'm probably just scratching the surface here with these points.
  1. Breaks down the barriers to publication for all writers.
    PROS
    • Under the current business model, anyone can publish a book if they can follow the publishing directions for Google, Amazon, or Apple.  There may be a small fee involved, but it is essentially open.  Amazon is the 800 pound gorilla in this ecosystem.  Places like Smashwords and other publishing platforms exist too with more limited traction.
    • No one can reject your writing other than the mass market.
    CONS
    • There are three main walled gardens for indies to publish in right now.  The rules can change.
    • The quality of writing will be across the board from terrible to really good for independent publishing.  It will be like rolling dice on a book to see if you have a winner based on limited reviews.
    • The gatekeeping performed by book publishers was seen as a quality check.  After all, a publisher wants to publish something that sells and does perform the QA function on the book.  This doesn't mean a crappy book can't get published, it just goes through QA first. 
    DISRUPTOR
    • You can bypass mainstream publishers and keep most of the book revenue for yourself.
    • Publishers have the resources to publish only so many books a year.  A hundred books get published to every one of theirs.  If the hundred indie books were of average quality (but this isn't the case) - this would kill them off in a few years or less.  They will get a smaller piece of the pie as they are being nibbled to death by mice.
  2. Empowers authors.
    PROS
    • Writing really is a solitary occupation.  Writers, painters, musicians can all work on their own.  You DO NOT NEED A TEAM.  This isn't a movie or a musical or a giant AAA videogame.  This means if you have the muse then you can go and create and find an audience.
    • If you are well connected to your readers (e.g. via social media) and have industry connections you will do better than if you don't have this as a lone writer in a cabin with internet.  You could match anything a big publisher could do for you to a certain level.  E.g. You can promote yourself, but you are not going to be able to doing mass media marketing via movies, ad campaigns, cross-marketing, product tie-ins, etc.
    • Mid-list authors can only benefit from this as they were only making a living.  If they control their back list and it is always available it can only increase their income.  They can also better cross-promote their books.
    CONS
    • There is piles of competition for consumers of your product.  You are a plankton in the great big sea.  Big publishers are still the apex predator other than the odd really successful indie writer or big name author who has gone off on their own.
    • Might still need help to finalize product.
    • Being just on your own doesn't mean you are good enough to survive.  E.g. lost in woods and starved to death.
    DISRUPTOR
    • Anyone can write and find an audience.
    • You can write what you want.
    • Anything can go viral with the right situation, luck, or skill.
  3. Provides plenty of variety to pick from to read.
    PROS
    • If you like fiction of a particular type, there will probably be more of it available.  E.g. Finding fiction or non-fiction about giant robots.  No one else but the author is determining market suitability and even then, they might just not care about the economics as it is a work of love.
    • There will be just more writing available.
    CONS
    • With plenty of variety, niche markets will likely be served less by big publishers due to the inherent overhead that they have.  They are not going to usually publish something unless they think they can make money.  If the small fry are selling cheaper or for free, they're not going to publish.
    • Too much variety - too much of a good thing and you cannot find the good stuff.  But this could be solved by the correct application of technology for search and review.
    DISRUPTOR
    • There will always be more variety.
  4. Many more books will be published.
  5. PROS
    • More books being published means that there is more information available.  More information means that there is more to read.  If you read, this is good.
    • If only 1 in 100 books per year is of great quality - a masterpiece of literature and 20 in one hundred are really good, then there are 21 books out of a hundred that are worth reading.  The rest is forgettable.  In traditional publishing you would only have 21 books as that is the production that big publishers can put out per year.  With self publishing and smaller publishers I'll just say the process scales to provide more good reading even if there is more dreck.  So there are now 1000 books being published by indies per year.  Even if  1 in five hundred is a master piece, and 10 per hundred are really good, that is still 2 master pieces and 100 good books plus the 21 books from the big publishers.  Do the math!
    CONS
    • There is too much to read.  The signal to noise ration is poor.  How do you find the good stuff?
    DISRUPTOR
    • Discovery technology will play a big role to determine who will be read.  No one has done this as a killer app yet.
    • Publishers can only lose, indies can only gain.
  6. Book pricing should come down.
    PROS
    • Cheaper ebooks for everyone.
    • Most ebooks are overpriced in the traditional sense as the overhead of physical production and transportation is gone so there is room for prices to come down.
    CONS
    • Free doesn't mean good.
    • Cheap doesn't mean a good writer can make a living unless there are massive sales volumes involved.
    • Book pricing really can be set to what the market will bear.  If you are a big name author, your loyal fans will support you with a more premium price.
    • Back list books don't seem to come down in price much (big publisher issue mainly) so the focus isn't on the long tail.
    DISRUPTOR
    • You are selling information and entertainment.  What is the price of this?
    • More innovative sales packaging with value-adds or cross-sales is a possibility to support authors.  E.g. premium bound books, t-shirts, limited edition items, meet the author, toys, etc.
  7. The publishing transformation hasn't ended yet.
  8. PROS
    • Change is good for a model that hasn't changed in a hundred years.  It was kind of stagnant no matter how you look at it.
    CONS
    • People who depend on the old publishing need to adapt and change. Stop bitching about too many amateurs.  You're the old guard in the revolution.  Change and succeed instead.
    DISRUPTOR
    • Plenty of business opportunities to help indie authors.  From contract editing, contract cover design, contract ebook assembly to publishing cooperatives that provide book development infrastructure and kill off some small publishers who take too big of a cut.  
    • Role of bookstores and libraries is still in flux.
    • Big publishers are not out of the game.  They can still change the game.  What if they building their own ebookstores for indies and groom indies themselves? Just look at blogging.  It was supposed to kill of traditional news and such, but it is now the domain of big aggregators.
    • No-DRM ebookstores with no affiliation to the existing players.
Anyhow, I'm pretty sure that there will be more books and more writers.  You really cannot let the genie out of the bottle and expect to get it back in.  There will be more change and thank god I don't depend on this for my living, but with change comes opportunity.  The big publishers should not disappear if they make the right moves and might even gain power from Amazon, Apple, Google if they play their cards right.